Electrolytic aluminum plate bottoms out and rebounds

Jiangsu Jinhui Color Coated Aluminum Coil Information: On December 26, the Central Environmental Protection Inspection Team gave feedback to the Shandong Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government, pointing out that Binzhou falsely reported the built-up production capacity of 2.44 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, while Liaocheng falsely reported the annual output of 450,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum as a completed project. The inspection requires that the Shandong Provincial Party Committee and the Provincial Government should focus on improving environmental quality, increase structural adjustment, and pay close attention to researching and formulating a rectification plan according to the Environmental Protection Inspection Plan (Trial) and the inspector's feedback requirements, and submit it to the State Council within 30 working days.

Event comments:

The supply-side reform continued to advance, and environmental protection inspectors remained strong. Recently, the non-ferrous sector has risen sharply, led by the electrolytic aluminum sector. The implementation of illegal production capacity shutdowns and environmental protection production restrictions in autumn and winter in Binzhou and Liaocheng, Shandong Province was lower than market expectations. The central environmental protection inspection team named the Shandong Provincial Party Committee and the provincial government to formulate a rectification plan and submit it to the State Council. We believe that, to a certain extent, it shows the firm will of the national level to reform the supply side of electrolytic aluminum. Environmental protection inspectors will remain strong, and a new round of compliance production capacity review and winter production restrictions will be further implemented.

Plates bottomed out, pessimism digested, and industry profits urgently need to continue to improve. According to my ** reports, 14 social inventories have remained at a high level of 1.698 million tons for three consecutive months, inventory inflection points have been lower than expected, environmental protection production restrictions and illegal production capacity shutdowns have fallen short of market expectations, resulting in a sustained pullback in the electrolytic aluminum sector in the early stage. However, since this week, the sector has gradually risen. We believe that the negative factors are gradually being exhausted, the pessimistic market sentiment has been digested, and we are optimistic about the continued recovery of the electrolytic sector in the follow-up. "Two highs and one low" need to be resolved, and industry profits need to be continuously improved. The electrolytic aluminum sector has a "high debt ratio, high energy consumption, and low profit". The debt ratio of the aluminum industry is 64.08% (the industry average is 57.67%), and it is in urgent need of profit improvement to continuously improve the balance sheet.

The strong are strong, and the evolution of the industry pattern continues. The production capacity of the top 15 electrolytic aluminum companies has accounted for 70% of the country's total production capacity. We believe that with the continuous supply-side reform and the simplification of the cross-provincial circulation process of production capacity replacement indicators, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity will gradually move closer to the dominant leading state-owned enterprises, and the concentration will be further improved. We are optimistic about the continuous evolution of the industry pattern in the future.

Based on the above judgments, we believe that the negative factors of electrolytic aluminum are gradually exhausted, the market's pessimistic expectations are repaired, and the opportunities for plate allocation are beginning to appear.

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